Last night I ran the Firecracker 5000. The race starts just before midnight and goes around Seattle Center. This year, there was a Green Day concert at Key Arena, which made finding parking an adventure.

I went to the race with my dad. We'd both driven out to Mason Lake earlier in the day for party with some family friends. The traffic getting to the lake was horrendous, and it took my almost three-and-half hours to drive there.

The drive back to my dad's house was only 90 minutes, but with the struggle to find parking, it took nearly hour to get downtown. If you do the math, that's six hours in a car. All of that time sitting does not engender a fast 5k. The three beers I had at the Lake didn't help, either.

For as late as it was, it was still quite warm at the race. I decided not to run in my red, white, and blue USA hat to stay a little cooler. Knowing I wasn't in the greatest shape, my goal was only to break 22:00. I just barely made it, clocking a 21:56. I ran a pretty evenly-paced race, but I still slowed a bit in the last mile.

Being a Friday night, there were a number of revelers out on the town. There was also quite a back-up from the concert traffic, which the race's road closures didn't help. This lead to a lot of heckling or cheering, depending on the mood of the crowd.

All in all, it was a satisfying experience.

Tour Talk

Today's stage played out about how I expected. Fabian Cancellara's performance was spectacular. I figured he would win; my only question was by how much.

The only real surprise to me was how well Roman Kreuziger did. He's not known for his time trialling, but I guess this course suited him in the same fashion it did Alberto Contador, who slotted in for a solid second.

The World Time Trial Champion, Bert Grabsch, did his rainbow stripes no honor by soft pedaling to a slow finish. I know the course didn't suit him--it must be difficult to haul his elephantine thighs uphill--but it would have been nice if he at least looked like he was trying. He finished 98th at nearly two minutes back.

Tomorrow — Stage 2: Monaco to Brignoles – 187 km

This is an easy prediction: Mark Cavendish. The stage is a little bit lumpy, but the hills are nowhere steep enough to shake Cavs--not this early in the race. Unless he has a late puncture or some kind of mechanical failure, he should cruise to easy win. His team is way too experienced for him to get into trouble, and if his position isn't ideal, he has the speed to make up for it.

Look for Thomas Voeckler to go for King of the Mountain points on the stage's four categorized climbs. A number of riders will be looking to wear the Polka Dot jersey at the end of the day, and Voeckler is right kind of attacking rider to come out in the lead.  ¶ 11:35 PM 0 Comments

 
Well, it's Tour de France time again. What July would be complete without my prognostications on cycling's finest event? I'll start with my predictions for the overall General Classification:

Yellow Jersey
1. Alberto Contador
2. Carlos Sastre
3. Cadel Evans

Unless the his team implodes under the pressure of supporting three GC contenders, Alberto Contador should win easily. His time trialling his improved enough that he doesn't need to win big time in the mountains to stay ahead of the time trial specialists like Denis Menchov and Evans.

Sastre is strong on the mountains, and he always rides best in the last week of a three-week tour. With a monster climb on the penultimate day, he can't be counted out. There is really only one rider who can out climb him; unfortunately for him, it's Contador.

I waffled between Evans and Menchov, as they're similar riders. They're both strong time triallers who can follow wheels in the mountains and not get dropped except by the strongest climbers. I think Evans will be a little fresher. Menchov has to be a little tired from his efforts in winning the Giro d'Italia. I figure Menchov will still have enough left in him to finish in the top five, but I don't see him on the podium.

A number of other riders will be fighting it out for spots in the top ten.

Andy Schleck is captaining the Saxo Bank squad. They are a strong team, and he was one of the best riders in the mountains at last years tour. I think he's still a little too weak in the time trial to finish on the podium, although a top five finish is a possibility.

I'm going out on a limb to pick Vladimir Karpets to finish in the top ten, but he's a solid rider, and now that he's transferred to Katusha, he's the GC captain for the first time. Since he won't have to work for anyone, and since Steegmans and McEwen won't be at the tour using riders, I think he can do big things.

Roman Kreuziger is a young rider, but he rode well at last year's tour, and looked good winning this year's Tour of Romandie.

Levi Leipheimer will finish high, just based on his role as Contador's top lieutenant. Things could get interesting, though, if things play out like the 2008 Vuelta. Leipheimer was close enough on GC that he almost took the overall lead when he won the final time trial. Contador might do well to worry about his teammates more than his rivals.

Someone from Columbia should finish in the top ten. It could be Kim Kirchen, if he's recovered from his injuries, or it might be Michael Rogers, who has performed solidly in the past, if not spectacularly. Maybe Tony Martin can do something, too--he looked really good at the Tour de Suisse.

I don't think that Christian Vande Velde will have the same great ride that he did last year, alas. He fractured ribs and vertebrae in a big crash at the Giro. He claims to be recovered, but he didn't look very sharp at the Tour de Suisse.

Lance Armstrong will be near the front, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make the top ten. He'll be a protected rider, but I figure his role will be to make pace in the early mountains. It would be nice if he could chase stage wins, but if he's too close on the GC, he'll get chased down every time. If he loses massive chunks of time early in the race, look for him to go in a breakaway at some point.

Green Jersey
Mark Cavendish

I think the only thing that will keep Cavs from winning the jersey is the time limit cut-off on the mountain stages. His Milan-San Remo victory proved that hills aren't the problem they used to be--but hills aren't mountains.

I'm excited to see Tyler Farrar sprint. He's one of very few riders that has beaten Cavendish straight up in bunch sprint. He went pretty well at the Giro, and I think he has a good shot at picking up a stage win. If Cavendish misses a time cut, I think Farrar could even take home the Green.

Of course, he would still have to contend with the defending Green Jersey champ, Oscar Freire. Freire might be the savviest sprinter in the peloton. If anyone can pick up points without dominating the win column, it's him.

Polka Dot Jersey
Christophe Moreau

I'm throwing the dice with this pick. Moreau has no real shot at the General Classification, and I think he knows it. Instead of trying for a high placing, I think he will try to amass mountain points early in the race and early in the mountain stages. He doesn't need to win any mountain top finishes to take home the King of the Mountains jersey, he just has to be the first over the summits along the way.

This is a strategy Fabian Wegmann has employed in the past, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tried it again. Look for him to be in the running, too.

Barring someone explicitly chasing the polka dots, the prize could go to someone high on GC. In fact, when Alberto Contador wins on Mont Ventoux, it might give him enough points to take home the Polka Dot Jersey to go with his Yellow one.

White Jersey
Andy Schleck

I think the younger Schleck will place in the top five overall, so it only makes sense that he would win the Best Young Rider Jersey. Plus, he's the defending title holder. I expect Kreuziger will challenge him again this year, and I think Tony Martin won't be far behind.

Stage One: Monaco to Monaco (ITT) — 15.5 Kilometers

I don't think the course is hilly enough or technical enough to keep Fabian Cancellara from winning. That being said, the course is almost a perfect fit for Contador. I don't think Contador will beat Cancellara, but I do think he'll be the fastest of the GC contenders.  ¶ 12:14 PM 0 Comments

  I competed in an orienteering race this morning at Point Defiance. Angie and the Little Dude came with me, and we met up with my parents at the park. The start area moved to a new location, and it involved quite an uphill hike from the parking area to get there.

Some terrible navigating and a lot of hills led to a slow time. The worst leg for me was from Control 2 to Control 3.



In looking for the control, I ran the dogleg back past Control 1, headed down the road, swooped around the train tracks, and dashed into the woods. I expected to see the control easily, since the knoll was mapped as being in open forest. In all actuality, it was in waist-high undergrowth, just off a small game path .

I lost a LOT of time looking around because my safety stop -- something to let me know I'd gone too far -- was not there. (Okay, it was there; it just wasn't a fence like I thought it was. Same effect.)

The description sheet covered what may have been a viable route to the control. It looked like a big trail runs toward the road at the south end of the park, which is straight shot onto the big path that passes very near the control. That route choice, if nothing else, might have made me realize that the dark line through the forest was not a fence, but a small power line.

I spent a long time wandering around in the woods wondering where the hell I was. "If I'm going the right way, shouldn't I have run into a fence by now?" I asked myself several times. Even after I found the control, I was still severely disoriented.


I took some umbrage with the placement of control 5. The single tree it was on was part of the forest! That, and I couldn't make out the marking on the map -- you have to look pretty close to see that green X.

There were also two distinct single trees in the clearing that weren't mapped. I checked them first, of course. The marker was hung low and out of sight, so I didn't notice it until I saw another orienteer coming out of the control. Seriously, this should have been marked as a vegetation boundary, and the single tree designation should come off the map.

After the meet, we had lunch at a nearby greasy-spoon restaurant. We ordered milk for Little Dude, but they didn't have any. The waitress said the owner had left to buy some, but he wouldn't be back until about 5:00. It was 1:30. I kind of had to wonder where he went to get this milk.  ¶ 4:58 PM 0 Comments

 
It seems that whenever I go orienteering, I do pretty well until I make a huge blunder that costs me way too much time. Sometimes it's a couple minutes, sometimes it's a couple dozen. I've decided to outline went wrong at today's event by plotting my actual course in red on the map segment below and commenting on my blunders.



Things started going awry on the lead-up to Control 13. I plainly saw a control flag at Point A, but it seemed too close to the gravel road I was sprinting down. I glanced at my description sheet and saw the control number should be 119. I glanced at the at the number on flag and saw 110--it was wrong.

Sprinting into the trees, I scanned for an orange and white flag. I arrived at the trail junction at Point B and realized I'd gone way past my control. Checking my description sheet, I saw number 119 was for Control 14. Number 110 was for Control 13 after all. D'oh! I'd sprinted right by it without breaking stride.

The run back to the missed control was, of course, uphill. I lost an easy 30 seconds committing possibly the stupidest navigational error I've ever made.

On my way to Control 14, I should have just turned onto the trail at Point B, but the trail up to Point C looked shorter, if more indistinct. With all the storm damage in the woods, though, the trail I had already found would have been the safer bet.

I found an indistinct trail and started up it. I'm not sure if it was the one marked on the map or not. All I know is I stumbled upon a raggedy tent hidden in the trees. It looked like a hobo camp to me. I didn't feel like getting stabbed with a broken beer bottle, so I turned around and headed back to the main trail, progressing until I reached Point D.

At Point D, I knew for sure where I was--the distinct trail leading down to the stream bed was a dead giveaway. I decided it wouldn't take any longer to keeping going forward than to turn back, so I pressed on, heading to Point E. Point E is where disaster struck.

There was a huge pit right before the trail intersection, so I knew I was in the right spot. (I had a little bit of doubt because the trail I came up wasn't in the greatest of shape and I'd already gone astray once.) From here it was pretty obvious all I had to do was turn left and run until I saw the flag on the vegetation boundary just before the four-way trail intersection.

But I didn't turn left. For some inexplicable reason, I went straight. I reached the trail intersection at Point F and pulled up in confusion. The trail wasn't supposed to T, it should have been a four-way intersection.

Thinking maybe a trail was obscured, I made a right turn and started scanning for the control. I wasn't seeing any open forest, but I knew the map was old, so I paid it little mind. Finally, I stumbled upon a flag--but it was on a fallen tree and only about a foot off the trail. I checked the number. It was for Control 17. Oops.

I ran back up the trail and turned towards Control 16. It looked like the shortest route. Now that I knew where I was, I hoped to find Control 14 quickly.

Passing a marker, I checked the number to make sure it was Control 16. It was. I was finally back on track. I continued up the trail and made all the correct turns. Spotting a marker at the edge of clearing from a good distance out, I made a beeline for it.

I checked the number and gave a small sigh of relief when it was indeed Control 14. I turned and headed back the way I'd come to get Control 15.

Finding it quickly, I punched it and started to move off. From below, it had looked like there was a small trail through the blackberries that would dump me right on the path to Control 16. Trying to find it, I poked around the edge of the clearing. Nothing looked promising, so I retraced my route out and pounded to 16. I lost a few seconds, but it was nothing compared to what I'd already lost.

Since I already knew where 16 and 17 were, I collected them quickly. From there I had little trouble with the rest of the course, but it was damage done, so I didn't fare nearly as well as I would have liked.  ¶ 11:15 PM 0 Comments

 
Wind blasted rain into my face and tore at my clothes as I set out on an easy four-mile jog along the Green River. Keeping the bill of my hat low to keep the rain from my eyes, I couldn't see much further the tips of my feet. Along the way, though, something caught at my peripheral vision, something white and glistening. I took a more focused glance and saw two large bones. Long and straight, they rested in the grass just a few feet from the asphalt. It looked for all the world like what was left of a person's leg.

I jogged on, hoping that I'd seen the remains of an animal. But the bones seemed too big to be a dog, or even a deer. I decided I would take a closer look when I passed them on my return. If I could determine they were animal bones, I wouldn't worry about it anymore. If I couldn't, I would call the police.

So, on the way back, I stopped and studied them carefully. They laid end to end, perfectly parallel to the road. Their tips touched, but I didn't see any tendons joining them. They were completely bare, no meat at all. One bone looked like a femur, and the knob at the end had a pinkish hue. The other bone was split, like one would expect from a tibia and fibula. At the "ankle" end of the bone was a weird notch that looked too regularly shaped to be natural. I didn't see anything that looked like a foot or a hoof.

The bones looked too thick to be human—but what did I know? My only experience with human bones was the anatomy skeleton tucked into the corner of my high school science lab. And it wouldn't have been the first time that human remains had been found along this stretch of road. (Yes, it was THAT Green River.)

When I got back to my car, I called 911. I decided that even if they weren't human bones, they should probably be removed. I gave the details to the dispatcher and did my best to describe where I'd found the bones. They didn't ask me to stick around, so I drove home.

Just as I pulled into my garage, the police called. The officer was having trouble finding the bones and wanted more details. I described some landmarks and hoped the bones were still there; I didn't want to be seen as some kind of crackpot. He called back again a few minutes later and asked me if I could come down and show him where to look, as he still couldn't find them. Saying I would, I headed back out, still dripping wet from running in the rain. I was about two minutes into my drive when he called for the third time to say he'd finally located the bones.

"Yeah, they're pretty big," he said. "I don't know if they're cattle bones, or what. I'm going to have to call my sergeant. He'll probably send out a medical examiner. You know, someone who can tell what he's looking at in about thirty seconds. I can let you know what they find out, if you want."

"I'd appreciate that," I said. "I'm kind of curious."

He took a few more details from me, including my birth date. He noted that I was "barely" older than him, which I found a little depressing. I don't feel mature enough to be older than a cop.

A few hours later he called back. "They're horse bones," he said.

"Horse bones," I said. "Weird."

"Yeah, it is weird. Well, it's out of my hands from this point. I don't think we need anything else from you, though, so I guess that's it."

I thanked him for letting me know. It's doubtful that I'll ever get any follow-up on this, which is a shame, because I'd really like to know how those bones got there. I think someone was perpetrating a hoax. The bones were big, easy to spot, resembled human leg bones, and seemed purposefully arranged—not mention their conspicuous proximity to an infamous river. But, I guess I'll never know.  ¶ 9:01 PM 0 Comments

 
I think I may have jinxed five US athletes. When I went to the Prefontaine Classic in June, I managed to get several autographs on my event program. Well, so far, anyone who signed my program has suffered disappointment and defeat at the Olympics.

On the cover we have, from top left to bottom right: LaShawn Merritt, Adam Nelson, Tori Edwards, and Brad Walker. On page 10 of the program, Bernard Lagat.



So far, Lagat's Olympics has been the most disastrous. Favored to win the Gold Medal in the 1500-meter run, he didn't even advance out of the semi-finals. Adam Nelson, expected to medal in the shot put, if not win, made it through the qualifying rounds, but went on to fault three times in a row and miss making the final eight. Tori Edwards, the 2007 World Champion in the 100-meter dash, made it to the final of her event, but flinched in the starting blocks. The starter never called the racers up, and Edwards, caught flat-footed when the gun went off, finished dead last. Brad Walker, the American Record holder and 2007 World Champion in the Pole Vault, no-heighted in the qualifying rounds and is out of the Olympics.

There's still hope, though. LaShawn Merritt, expected to get Silver or better in the 400-meter dash, has looked excellent through the rounds, qualifying for the final easily. And Lagat has a chance to redeem himself in the 5000-meter run; he won his qualifying heat to make the final.  ¶ 12:37 AM 1 Comments

 
Tour Talk

I don't have a lot of time to type this out because I want to get to bed. I haven't talked about the tour the last couple of days, mostly because I've been doped up on cold medicine, and, therefore too groggy to be coherent. In fact, on Thursday and Friday I found myself dozing through much of each stage. I was disappointed to miss the racing—although, the stages were a bit snooze-worthy. The only real action (that I saw) was Roman Kreuziger attacking at the end of Stage 18 to try to make up time in the race for the White Jersey. Andy Schleck was all over him, though. Kreuziger was the only rider with anything on the line to attack on either day. He'll be someone to look out for in the future.

The time trial played out like I expected as far as the GC contenders went. Sastre rode a little better than I thought he would, but I always figured he'd fend off Evans. Schumacher surprised me once again by winning the stage. I'd never really thought of him as a time trial specialist. I guess I'll have to revise my opinion. Bernard Kohl was the revelation of the day. His finishing time was far above what anyone expected from him, and he managed to cling onto a podium spot. I thought Menchov would pass him for sure, and I half-expected Vandevelde to springboard over him into fourth. He's cinched the Polka Dots, too. What a break out season for him.

Stage Twenty: Étampes to Paris/Champs Élysées — 143 Kilometers

I'm torn between choosing Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire, or Robbie McEwen to win tomorrow's stage. Hushovd is a strong, heavy rider who does well on the cobbles, which will make up the majority of the finishing loops. He will have his whole team working for him, too, except his main lead-out man, Mark Renshaw, who is out of the race. Oscar Freire is a tricky rider who always finds the right line through a crowd. That could play to his advantage, as there are a few twists and turns in the final kilometer—it's not the type of finish that suits a lead-out train. Now that Mark Cavendish has left the race, Robbie McEwen has the quickest finishing punch. If he can find the right wheel, he can burst across the line for the victory. He doesn't have much help from his team, though, so he could have trouble getting to the front of the peloton to find a good wheel.

After weighing all my considerations, I've got to go green. I'm picking Oscar Freire, current holder of the Green Jersey for best sprinter, to take the win on the Champs Élysées.  ¶ 12:55 AM 0 Comments

 
Yesterday morning, I started to feel a little tickle in the back of my throat. By the afternoon, it was quite sore, and it pained me to swallow. I decided to skip my run and recuperate by watching five hours of Tour de France coverage. That night, I could barely sleep. I would wake up from the pain of swallowing. By my estimation, I got about two hours of sleep. I went to work this morning, but I was so miserable and it was so hard to concentrate that I went home early. At home, I looked around and found some cold medicine. I took it and finally felt well enough to sleep for about four hours.

Once I got up, I watched a few hours of the Alpe d'Huez stage before I decided I better put in some miles. Nothing clears out a stuffed up head better than a quick jog. Once I got going, I felt great—from the neck down, anyway. In fact, my legs felt so good, I ended up going six miles instead of four. I imagine that skipping both hard workouts this week is why I felt good. Although I'm nervous about how the missed training will affect my big race, it's nice to know that my legs feel thrashed because I've been working hard, not because I've grown weak.

Tour Talk

Tuesday's stage did little to upset the GC, other than sending Christian Vande Velde down a few minutes. It looks like the podium has slipped from his grasp. George Hincapie just missed out on a good chance for a stage win when he tailed off the back of the day's winning breakaway.

Today's stage up the Alpe d'Huez was awesome. Although it moved the GC around a little bit, it's still a tight race. Carlos Sastre would have been my pick to win the stage if I hadn't gone to bed early because of a sore throat, but I guess it doesn't count since I didn't post it before I watched the stage. He did manage to get a little more time than I expected, but I don't know if it will be enough to hold of Cadel Evans. In 2006, however, Sastre rode a pretty good second time trial—he only lost 61 seconds to Evans and nine seconds to Menchov. He is just one of those guys who goes well in the third week. If Evans and Menchov are tired, Sastre could keep the Yellow Jersey all the way to Paris.

Vande Velde managed to stay with the group today, but sitting in the overall with 6th place at 4:41 back, I don't see him finishing any higher than fourth. Bernard Kohl and Frank Schleck are both over three minutes ahead of him, but they're the only riders really in reach. Unless Sastre, Menchov, or Evans blow up in the time trial or suffer some setback on the next two stages, I don't see Vande Velde standing on the podium.

Stage Eighteen: Bourg d'Oisans to Saint Étienne — 196.5 Kilometers

With a jagged profile that includes a Category 2 climb 33 kilometers from the finish and a steep Category 4 climb only 8 kilometers from the finish, tomorrow's stage screams breakaway. It's just about impossible to predict a winner on stage like this, as the riders allowed into a breakaway will by domestiques from teams with no highly-placed GC riders. Look for a lot of Bouygues Telecom, Agritubel, Credit Agricole, and Cofidis jerseys to go up the road. With no real clue, I'm going to pick Philippe Gilbert for the win. He's a real headbanger, and if he gets up the road with a small group, he should be able to ride away from them and cruise to victory.  ¶ 11:41 PM 0 Comments

 
I competed in an orienteering event on Sunday morning. Most of the park was restricted to trail-use only, so it was more of a map run than a navigation challenge. That said, I still over-ran the first control and had to backtrack. When I was done with the event, I ran an extra few miles to keep my weekly mileage up. I found the trails wide, shady, and pleasant.

Today I ran an easy five miles, but my legs felt terrible. I had a bunch of sore spots, which I assume came from running hard on the uphills during yesterday's orienteering event. I've done absolutely zero hill work in training this year, and it really shows.

Tour Talk

What a stage we had on Sunday! Instead of sorting out the classification, the race actually got closer. Christian Vande Velde went from third at 38 seconds back to fifth at 39 seconds back. Carlos Sastre stayed in sixth, but he's now only 49 seconds down. Bernard Kohl is the surprise rider of this tour. He wasn't on my radar, that's for sure. I understand he's not much of a time-trialer, but if he keeps climbing like this, he could steal the win. He's now in second, a mere 7 seconds behind new leader Frank Schleck.

Wearing the Yellow Jersey, Cadel Evans dropped to third, but he only needs to make up 8 seconds, which he can do handily in the time trial, assuming he doesn't lose more time in the next two big mountain stages.

Denis Menchov moved into fourth place at 38 seconds down. In the final kilometers of the last climb, he attacked, only to slip on slick pavement and tumble from his bike. He remounted but lost his chain. He finally got sorted out, and his main rivals didn't press the attack until he caught back on. Everyone's left to wonder what would have happened had he stayed on his bike.

On the descent of the Col Agnel, Oscar Pereiro crashed into a guardrail, went over it, and landed on the switchback below. It wasn't captured well on TV, but it must have looked something like Frank Schleck's crash at this year's Tour de Suisse, but with a harder landing. His crash seemed to scare a lot of riders, because no one really pushed it for the rest of the descent. That might be the reason the four-man breakaway was able to stay up the road and go clear for the win. What impressed me was that the breakaway had over a 13-minute lead at the start of the final climb, but only 4 minutes at the end. When the GC riders get the bit in their teeth, they really fly.

Stage Sixteen: Cuneo to Jausiers — 157 Kilometers

Another hard day of climbing awaits our riders on tomorrow's stage. Two massive HC peaks dominate the elevation profile, the second of which ascends to a lung-searing 9,193 feet. The finish line comes after 25 kilometers of steep descending, however, so it is unlikely for large time gaps to open up. If the weather turns sour, though, we could some timid riders losing time, or worse, crashes.

I think Alejandro Valverde will take the stage. He's climbing well again after his crash on Stage 5, he's a good descender, and he's just far enough behind on GC that he won't ring the alarm bells too loudly. I imagine he'd also like to be able to dedicate a stage win to his crash-stricken teammate Pereiro.  ¶ 12:02 AM 0 Comments

 
Aunt Gigi agreed to take the Little Dude for the night, so I had the whole afternoon and evening to myself. It looked like I'd be able to fit in that ten-mile training run after all. (There was no way I'd push a jogging stroller for ten miles; either the Little Dude would mutiny or my arms would fall off.)

I came home, finished watching the Tour, ate half a bag of potato chips (my only meal of the day), and then fell asleep for two-and-a-half hours. Pathetic. I managed to make something out of nothing, though, squeezing in a quick four-mile jog before the sun set. With the way I felt when I was done, maybe it's not a bad thing I didn't manage to go ten.

Tour Talk

Today's stage worked out about like I expected. The road turned upward and Mark Cavendish drifted right out of the back of the peloton. Oscar Freire, my predicted winner, jumped out of the front of a slow-motion sprint to take the victory. The bunch moved quite slowly over the last kilometer. Columbia had been leading out the last couple of days, but they just weren't up for it today. No one else wanted to do it either, so everybody sort of soft-pedaled until the last 200 meters. Julian Dean sprinted well for Garmin-Chipotle, but he just didn't have that final burst necessary to get to the front. He came across the line in fourth place, not a bad showing for the national champion of New Zealand.

Stage Fifteen: Embrun to Prato Nevoso — 183 Kilometers

Tomorrow's stage should shake up the GC a little bit. There is a huge HC climb right at the beginning of the stage, but it is followed by a long descent before the riders reach the slopes of the day's final climb, the Category 1 Prato Nevoso. With such a long, fast ride from the top of the Col Agnel, I doubt a breakaway rider will stay clear. This stage should come down to the guys fighting it out for the GC, along with a couple of pure climbers sprinkled in.

I think Rémy Di Gregorio can get the win, assuming he bides his time until the bottom of the final climb. No one will feel the need to chase him down, and all the favorites will be too worried about each other to pay him much attention.

The battle for the Yellow Jersey could prove interesting. Team CSC will attack relentlessly. The only question is which of their riders will be the strong man on the day. Carlos Sastre didn't look so hot on the last high mountain stage, but he has a reputation of riding well in the third week. Frank Schleck looked good earlier, but is going to play second fiddle to Sastre? Andy Schleck is out of contention for the GC, but he'll certainly be riding in support of his brother and Sastre. Andy could even take the stage win, depending on how the rest of the GC riders react to each other.

I think Sastre will finally show up and make a run at Yellow. I don't think he'll make up enough time to move ahead of Evans, but he should close the gap. I think Frank Schleck will be sent on early attacks to soften Evan up. The question is whether Evans will fall for the bait. I think he'll have to follow Frank Schleck's wheel, which is why Sastre will have the fresher legs at the end of the climb. I think the big question will be whether Schleck can cross the finish line more than one second ahead of Evans. I think he can.

In summary: Di Gregorio gets the stage win, Frank Schleck gets Yellow, and Sastre moves up into third, mere seconds behind Evans.  ¶ 11:23 PM 0 Comments

 
I ran four miles this afternoon, pushing the Little Dude in the jogging stroller. It was kind of a chore to push him uphill, and I think my arms will be sore tomorrow.

After my jog, I took the Little Dude over the playground equipment so he could play on the slides. A man showed up with two boys who were about two- and four-years old. At one point the older boy was standing next to me, and he put his hand up to shade his eyes as though he were trying to sight land from the crow's nest of a sailing ship.

"I wonder which way it went," he said. He peered into the trees for a moment before he turned to me and asked, "Do you know where the war funding went?"

I struggled to come up with something to say. The best I could do was, "Uh . . . no, I don't."

Tour Talk

Today's stage was pretty straight forward, and my prediction that Mark Cavendish would win the stage proved correct. It was an impressive final sprint. With just over 100 meters to go, Cav was pinned behind a wall of bikes. A rider to his left moved over, leaving a small gap. Cav exploded through it. He streaked past three bike lengths worth of sprinters, including Robbie McEwen in full cry, and won handily.

I realized that I miscounted yesterday, and Barloworld actually has four riders left. However, that's still not much help for Robbie Hunter.

Stage Fourteen: Nîmes to Digne les Bains — 194.5 Kilometers

Tomorrow's stage is a tough one to call. It's listed as a flat stage, but it has a Category 4 climb that tops out a mere 9.5 kilometers from the finish. Bucking the trend, I think this stage will end with a bunch sprint. I don't, however, think Mark Cavendish will fare well up the last hill. He really struggles on the slopes, and it doesn't seem like there will be enough time for him to latch back on. I want to give this one to Thor Hushovd because it seems like a finish that could suit him, but he hasn't been able to get past Oscar Freire for Green Jersey points the last few days. Freire is known for climbing well if it's not the high mountains, so I think I'm going to have to go with him. Oscar Freire, for the win.  ¶ 12:51 AM 0 Comments

 
Today was a rest day, so I didn't go running. It was not, however, a restful day. Angie left for Tulsa this morning, which leaves me with the duty of solo-parenting the Little Dude. It's not a particularly difficult job, but it is a bit of a grind. The day just disappears. It seems like there should be plenty of time during the day to get projects done, but it was dinner time before I knew it.

Little Dude fell on his face twice while I was watching him. The first time he was sitting on the couch and reaching for a toy. He just tumbled off. The next time he was sitting next to me on a bench at the park. He decided to get off, but he started moving forward before his feet hit the ground. Splat! (Did he fall off the giant playground toy? No. Did he fall off the rickety spring-rocker thingy? No. Did he fall off the curb that he was using as a balance beam? No. He fell off a freaking bench.) I felt terrible each time—well, the couch was kind of funny—but he wasn't hurt, and he got over it quickly. Angie assured me that face-planting twice in one day is about his average. I better teach this kid to call 911 because he's liable to give me a heart attack.

Tour Talk

Another day, another doping bust. This time it was a big one: Riccardo Ricco, the holder of the White Jersey for best young rider and of the Polka Jersey for best climber. I think it's sad that before I heard the name of the rider who'd been busted I thought, "I bet it's Ricco." He tore up the slopes of the Pyrenees without showing any signs of fatigue from tearing up the mountains in the Giro d'Italia. I guess he idolized Marco Pantani just a bit too much.

Besides that, the stage went exactly as I expected, and my pick took an easy win. In other news, former Green Jersey winner Baden Cooke crashed out, leaving his team, Barloworld, with only three riders. Poor Robbie Hunter; he's just about a one-man show now.

Narbonne to Nîmes — 182 Kilometers

Tomorrow is a flat stage with a good run-up to the finish line. How can I not pick Cavendish again?  ¶ 12:22 AM 0 Comments

 
I ran a twenty-minute tempo run today. My goal was to run a pace of about 6:30 per mile. I barely managed to run under 7:00. I never felt right the whole time. I'm glad tomorrow is a rest day.

Tour Talk

Apparently, when the Little Dude woke up this morning, he immediately began to ask, "Bikes? Bikes?" Angie obliged him and turned on the Tour. He then started to cheer for his favorite rider, "Dahdebelda." You might know him better as Christian Vande Velde. The indoctrination is succeeding. Yes!

I claim half credit for my prediction of today's stage. Thor Hushovd did win the field sprint; however, a breakaway stayed clear so he didn't win the stage. Kurt Asle Arvesen of CSC won over Martin Elminger of AG2R and Alessandro Ballan of Lampre. As the three riders pounded the final few hundred meters, I remembered the way he Ballan blew by Leif Hoste at the end of the 2007 Tour of Flanders, and I though he would win for sure. I forgot Arvesen is rather handy in the sprint himself, although his margin of victory was about a centimeter.

Barloworld lost a rider to doping charges, and two other riders on the team didn't finish today's stage. Soler crashed out long ago. Last year they were the darlings of the Tour. This year they're practically a joke. I hope Robbie Hunter can pull out a good result and save their season.

Stage Twelve: Lavelanet to Narbonne — 168.5 Kilometers

This stage is a bit lumpy, but it has a net drop of 467 meters. With only one categorized climb—and a lowly Category 4, at that—this should be a day for the sprinters. When it comes to a classic field sprint, no one can beat Mark Cavendish; ergo, I'm picking him for the win.  ¶ 11:30 PM 0 Comments

 
Today was an interval workout. I ran four sets of 4:30 hard, 3:30 easy, with a mile warm-up and mile cooldown. Previously, I was only running three reps for this workout, and upping it to four kind of hurt. I felt pretty wobbly by the last one. I eschewed running on the track because I was afraid I'd be disappointed with my times—my legs were feeling a little stale. I think, however, that I might have run my first two reps too hard. Without the solid reference of a track, I have no real way to judge pace beyond feel—and the first one always feels easy. The heat didn't help.

Tour Talk

After watching five hours of bike racing yesterday, I decided to go to bed rather than write up a report that practically no one will read. I want to get my prediction before the next stage though, so better late than never.

I thought I'd called the stage winner when Di Gregorio went clear over the Tourmalet with a seven-mintue lead. When I saw how fast the gap was closing on the descent, however, I knew he wasn't going to make it. Sastre was a bit of a disappointment too. He made one attack, which failed, then he followed wheels. Perhaps he's saving himself for the Alps, and he's certainly still in contention, but Frank Schleck is looking like the new captain of the CSC squad. Schleck went clear with Piepoli and Cobo but couldn't quite stay with them all the way to the finish. Drifting in about 30 seconds after stage-winner Piepoli, he came oh-so close to wearing Yellow. In the end, Cadel Evans aced him out by a single second.

A few favorites faltered in the mountains. Valverde was the most notable, though he's not entirely out of the picture at only 4:41 back on GC. Damiano Cunego is almost certainly out of contention at 5:37, and Haimar Zubeldia doesn't have a snowball's chance after losing 28 minutes on the day to plummet to 33:52 down. So much for picking him to finish in the top ten. Things should get interesting in the Alps. I'm nearly drooling at the thought of an epic race-changing day on the slopes of Alpe d'Huez.

Stage Eleven: Lannemezan to Foix — 167.5 Kilometers

Traditional wisdom says this stage is ripe for a breakaway to succeed: it follows a rest day, it's a "medium mountain" stage, and the GC race is pretty much settled down to a handful of riders. That said, I think the tomorrow's stage will end in a bunch sprint. Sure, there's a Category 1 climb right in the middle of the stage, followed by a Category 3 speed bump 20 kilometers from the finish, but there's plenty of time for the peloton to close the gaps. I think Credit Agricole will be especially interested in delivering Thor Hushovd to the line, as they have no GC riders to worry about. Oscar Freire should be near the front, as Rabobank will be working to keep Denis Menchov's 5th place safe. The hills might be a bit much for McEwen and Cavendish, but I think Zabel will get over. With those considerations in mind, I'm picking Thor Hushovd to win the stage.  ¶ 12:14 AM 0 Comments

 
I ran a ten-mile long run today. Looking back over my calendar, I discovered it was my first 10-mile training run of 2008. Seeing that it's mid-July, this is not a good thing. The run did not go well. Temperatures pushed into the 80s, and I don't handle the heat well. I was pretty much wiped out by the end.

The Little Dude told his first joke today. "Knock, knock," he said.

"Is this a knock-knock joke?" I replied. "Okay, then—who's there?"

"Stinky!¹"

"Stinky who?"

"Stinky poo²!"

Well, I thought it was funny.

Tour Talk

Damn. I was waffling between Sami Sanchez and Riccardo Ricco when I made my pick yesterday, and I went with Sanchez, mostly because Ricco had crashed that day. I should have listened to my gut; it was telling me to pick Ricco.

Ricco won the stage with élan. A couple of bold attacks strung out the peloton, and then he blasted away like he had a rocket strapped on his back. He was far enough down on the GC that no one worked to chase him back. A strong effort by Ricco kept the gap from closing on the descent. Sami Sanchez stayed with main contenders and finished in the lead group.

At one point, Ricco sailed past Luis Leon (not Sami) Sanchez, who was slightly up the road in a smaller breakaway. He was marking Maxime Monfort, a GC threat, but not working with him. It was clear L.L. Sanchez was working for Valverde and not chasing a stage win. He sat up when Ricco went by. I would like to know what would have happened if he'd be allowed to chase and go for the victory himself.

Cadel Evans, the odds-on favorite to win, crashed hard midway through the stage. No one knows if he's badly hurt. His left side was scraped and bloody in several places, the jersey around his right shoulder blade was shredded, and his helmet looked like someone took a few whacks at it with a hammer. If he can survive tomorrow's stage, he has a rest day on Tuesday to recover, but if he's too beat up to stay with leaders, then his Tour chances are over. It always sucks when a race favorite crashes.

Stage Ten: Pau to Hautacam — 156 Kilometers

With two HC climbs—the monstrous Col du Tourmalet and a mountain-top finish on much-feared Hautacam—tomorrow's stage is a beast. It could determine the winner of the whole race, although I think it's a bit too early for that to happen. It should definitely separate the pretenders from the contenders though. I'm hoping Evans isn't too badly injured from today's crash to wheelsuck someone to the top and stay in contention.

There will most likely be two separate races—one for the stage win and one for the Yellow Jersey. Since tomorrow is Bastille Day, it's almost guaranteed a French rider will attack. If he's far enough out of contention for the overall, he could solo to victory. In fact, I think that's exactly what will happen. That's why I'm picking the highly-touted climber Rémy Di Gregorio to win the stage.

Further down the mountain, the GC favorites will be marking each other. I think Carlos Sastre will be the first to come across the line, but I don't know if he'll gain enough time to take the overall lead. Evans could finish in Yellow, as all he needs to do is finish within 55 seconds of anyone but Stefan Schumacher, Christian Vande Valde (USA! USA!), or current leader Kim Kirchen. I would love to see Vande Velde move into the lead, but I think the stage will be just a little too tough for him. He could hold onto a top-ten position though.

On the Versus broadcast, the have a segment called the SAAB performance prediction. The four guys in the booth—Craig Hummer, Bob Roll, Paul Sherwin, and Phil Liggett—take turns picking who they think will win the stage. They keep a running score and pass around their own Yellow Jersey. Well, I realized today that anytime Phil makes the same pick as me, that rider finishes out of the money. Please, Phil, don't pick Di Gregorio tomorrow!

1. Stinky is a much-loved, much-chewed stuffed penguin.
2. Stinky poo is what Little Dude says when he smells his socks.  ¶ 10:54 PM 0 Comments