There is something so compelling about bike racing, I just can't tear myself away from it, despite the many drug scandals that keep popping up. The combination of speed, risk of crash and injury, teamwork, individual effort, group politics, rider accessibility, and outrageous clothes absolutely rivets me. A Jim Caple article captures some of the essence of what I'm feeling. Anyhow, the Tour de France starts tomorrow, and I'm so excited I could pee. On to my predictions:

The Overall, in order:
Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Klöden, Levi Leipheimer.
I don't think an Astana sweep is out of the question. Andrey Kashechkin is certainly good enough to keep up with Vino and Klödi. In fact, I'm not sure Vino is the best rider on the team. He is, however, undisputedly the captain. The question is, how hard will Klödi and Kash have to work to support him.

I would put Alejandro Valverde in the third spot, but I don't picture him finishing the race. He's had some bad luck in three-week races, and I think it's gotten into his head. I imagine he'll get to the mountains, win a stage, and then lose "massive chunks of time" down the line, only to withdraw because of "tendonitis."

I think Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, and Denis Menchov will round out the top six, but their lack of time-trialing ability will keep them off the podium. As to Oscar Pereiro, well, lightning doesn't strike twice. His climbing gives him a chance at the top ten, though. I think Vladimir Karpets has a legitimate shot at the top ten, too—if he doesn't have to work for Valverde or Pereiro. Otherwise, his duties as top lieutenant will hold him back. If there was a jersey for best hair, however, he would win it in a heartbeat.

Michael Rogers could crack to the top ten, but I don't see him being much of a factor for the leaders. Haimar Zubeldia could sneak into the top ten as well, but he'll do it quietly, and he won't threaten for the overall. Fränk Schleck could contend for the top five, but I don't think he's fully recovered from cracking his vertebra in a crash at the Amstel Gold race. I imagine he'll be working for Sastre instead of riding for a place. Look for Christophe Moreau and Stefan Schumacher to finish in the bottom half of the top ten.

The Green Jersey:
Unless he crashes or gets relegated, Robbie McEwen should win. Oscar Freire could run him close, but I doubt he'll go all the way to Paris, especially now that he's suffering from ass cysts again. Thor Hushovd is a definite contender, and he has proven he can finish the race. If McEwen falters, Thor can win. Don't discount Eric Zabel, though. He doesn't win much anymore, but he's consistently at the front, and he has the experience to pick up intermediate bonuses at the right time. Tom Boonen will be in the mix, too, but a broken toe and missed conditioning will keep him from being 100%.

The Polka Dot Jersey:
Normally, I would pick Michael Rasmussen and be done with it. I'm not sure, however, that he's recovered from breaking his femur in a bad crash at the Giro dell'Emilia in October. If he's firing on all cylinders, he'll win. If not, look for Christophe Moreau to do something special.

The Prologue:
A lot of people are talking up Bradley Wiggins to win the prologue. I'm of a different mind. I think Fabian Cancellara will win. I just can't imagine anyone beating him. The course isn't too technical, so power and position will play a bigger role than bike handling. With that in mind, I think Zabriskie will finish second, in a reprise of the World Championships. Don't be surprised if George Hincapie manages third, he rides an excellent prologue. I think Wiggins and David Millar will come in close behind those three, but despite the hype, I don't think either will win.  ¶ 12:21 AM