Aunt Gigi agreed to take the Little Dude for the night, so I had the whole afternoon and evening to myself. It looked like I'd be able to fit in that ten-mile training run after all. (There was no way I'd push a jogging stroller for ten miles; either the Little Dude would mutiny or my arms would fall off.)

I came home, finished watching the Tour, ate half a bag of potato chips (my only meal of the day), and then fell asleep for two-and-a-half hours. Pathetic. I managed to make something out of nothing, though, squeezing in a quick four-mile jog before the sun set. With the way I felt when I was done, maybe it's not a bad thing I didn't manage to go ten.

Tour Talk

Today's stage worked out about like I expected. The road turned upward and Mark Cavendish drifted right out of the back of the peloton. Oscar Freire, my predicted winner, jumped out of the front of a slow-motion sprint to take the victory. The bunch moved quite slowly over the last kilometer. Columbia had been leading out the last couple of days, but they just weren't up for it today. No one else wanted to do it either, so everybody sort of soft-pedaled until the last 200 meters. Julian Dean sprinted well for Garmin-Chipotle, but he just didn't have that final burst necessary to get to the front. He came across the line in fourth place, not a bad showing for the national champion of New Zealand.

Stage Fifteen: Embrun to Prato Nevoso — 183 Kilometers

Tomorrow's stage should shake up the GC a little bit. There is a huge HC climb right at the beginning of the stage, but it is followed by a long descent before the riders reach the slopes of the day's final climb, the Category 1 Prato Nevoso. With such a long, fast ride from the top of the Col Agnel, I doubt a breakaway rider will stay clear. This stage should come down to the guys fighting it out for the GC, along with a couple of pure climbers sprinkled in.

I think Rémy Di Gregorio can get the win, assuming he bides his time until the bottom of the final climb. No one will feel the need to chase him down, and all the favorites will be too worried about each other to pay him much attention.

The battle for the Yellow Jersey could prove interesting. Team CSC will attack relentlessly. The only question is which of their riders will be the strong man on the day. Carlos Sastre didn't look so hot on the last high mountain stage, but he has a reputation of riding well in the third week. Frank Schleck looked good earlier, but is going to play second fiddle to Sastre? Andy Schleck is out of contention for the GC, but he'll certainly be riding in support of his brother and Sastre. Andy could even take the stage win, depending on how the rest of the GC riders react to each other.

I think Sastre will finally show up and make a run at Yellow. I don't think he'll make up enough time to move ahead of Evans, but he should close the gap. I think Frank Schleck will be sent on early attacks to soften Evan up. The question is whether Evans will fall for the bait. I think he'll have to follow Frank Schleck's wheel, which is why Sastre will have the fresher legs at the end of the climb. I think the big question will be whether Schleck can cross the finish line more than one second ahead of Evans. I think he can.

In summary: Di Gregorio gets the stage win, Frank Schleck gets Yellow, and Sastre moves up into third, mere seconds behind Evans.  ¶ 11:23 PM